New Delhi, Feb 6: With more women and OBC voters backing the BJP in the February 5 Assembly election, the party may garner 45-55 seats with a vote share of 48 per cent as against the ruling AAP's 15-25 seats with a vote share of 42 per cent, an Exit poll by Axis My India said on Thursday.

The change in BJP's fortune appears linked to a rise in Congress’ vote share from 4.62 per cent in 2020 to a possible 7 per cent, the poll said, adding that almost 74 per cent of Muslim voters backed the AAP.

Another poll agency, Today's Chanakya, gave the BJP 51 (plus/minus six seats with a vote share of 49 per cent (plus/minus 3 per cent).

It gave the AAP 19 seats (plus/minus 6 seats) with a vote share of 41 per cent (plus/minus 3 per cent).

The findings of the two Exit Poll reports released on Thursday were a reconfirmation of the findings of a majority of exit polls that indicated, within hours of end of polling, an edge for the BJP over its rival AAP while giving the Congress 0-1 seat.

The result for the 70-member Assembly poll will be declared on February 8.

The election recorded a 60.44 per cent turnout, around 2 percentage points lower than the 62.59 per cent in the 2020 Assembly poll. The turnout in the Lok Sabha election was 58 per cent.

Axis My India pollsters said that in the just-concluded election 46 per cent of women voters backed the BJP as compared to 44 per cent for the AAP. About 50 per cent of the male voters backed the BJP as compared to 40 per cent for the AAP.

Similarly, young voters aged between 18-25 favoured the BJP (46 per cent) over the AAP (44 per cent).

Almost 52 per cent of the 61-plus voters backed the BJP as against 39 per cent for the AAP.

The BJP also got a higher percentage of votes from occupational categories like small shopkeepers, private and government servicemen and students.

In terms of castes and communities, the AAP got a bigger share of votes than the BJP from communities like Muslim (74 per cent), Jatav (60 per cent), Balmiki (53 per cent), SC (51 per cent) and Sikh (69 per cent).

On the other hand, the BJP got the majority backing of Brahmins (66 per cent), Jats (63 per cent), OBC (58 per cent as against AAP’s 34 per cent), Rajputs (61 per cent) and general voters (68 per cent), said Axis My India report.

The BJP also proved to be the favoured party for hill state migrants or voters with roots in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

A total of 57 per cent of hilly area residents backed the BJP as compared to 35 per cent for the AAP.

More voters from Bihar (50 per cent), Haryana (54 per cent), Rajasthan (45) and Uttar Pradesh (48) backed the BJP than the AAP which was backed by 43 per cent of Bihari voters, 36 per cent of Haryanvi voters, 42 per cent of UP voters and 44 per cent of Rajasthani voters.

The intensive campaign by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann did not result in major gains for the AAP from Punjabi voters. The AAP got 45 per cent of Punjabi votes while the BJP got 46 per cent of the Punjabi votes.

The AAP scored over the BJP when it came to getting the support of voters from West Bengal and the Northeast, 53 per cent of Bengalis and 55 per cent of Northeast voters backed the AAP, as compared to 37 per cent and 38 per cent for the BJP, respectively.

--IANS

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